Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf02…27c6 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$15
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$56
other 39% −$189
sports 8% +$339
world 4% −$57
economics 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -14.6% -22.8% 6% 1% -9.9%
all 131 -2.3% -11.6% 24% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 9% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 9% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 7% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,175) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$6 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage139d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $672 $672 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $307 $307 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,308 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,192 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,164 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,307 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $521 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $820 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,499 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $3,887 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $701 +$3 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,265 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,990 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $4,041 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $5,783 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,319 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $307 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $672 30h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $732 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $733 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $968 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $969 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,083 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,191 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,087 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,041 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $885 17d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $887 18d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $819 18d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $820 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.85 · official $978.85 (match) · 389 history records