Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf02…b08f
weather · 287 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$81 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$79 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$117
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses258 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)278 / 287
History coverage132d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 9 History 278 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$14
14 days+$56
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 94¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 94¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? No 94¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 5? No 98¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? No 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$27
world 3% +$9
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$44
other 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 64¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +1.1% -8.6% 95% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 143 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 2% -6.7%
≤90d 269 +3.0% -6.8% 93% 4% -7.3%
all 278 +3.0% -6.9% 93% 4% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -7.2%
10% -15.8% 3% -16.1%
15% -23.9% 3% -24.2%
20% -31.4% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.00 · official $117.00 (match) · 830 history records