Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf01…3b2d
weather · 218 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$192 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$423 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,732
Realized+$423
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses153 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)215 / 218
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1,326
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$238
14 days+$275
30 days+$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,680 $1,672 −$9 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $47 $54 +$7 (+15%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 3? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 3? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 3? No 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 3? No 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $63 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $106 −$2 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $54,087 +$211 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$25 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $210 −$35 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$24 +49%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $44 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 5? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $42 +$18 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $192 −$23 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $173 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $53 +$18 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $93 −$52 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 03 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 03 $70 −$20 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$418
economics 23% −$47
politics 10% $0
weather 3% +$85
other 2% −$35
finance 1% +$17
sports 0% −$8
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $38 45m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1,920 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $970 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $51 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $34 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+72.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +183.7% +156.7% 42% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 211 +92.2% +73.9% 72% 6% -12.4%
≤90d 215 +90.4% +72.3% 71% 6% -11.7%
all 215 +90.4% +72.3% 71% 6% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.3% 6% -11.7%
10% +55.8% 5% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here +40.8% 5% -27.9%
20% +27.0% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,732.41 · official $1,732.31 (match) · 1374 history records