Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcef6…88be crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+15%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$158
other 19% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 46% +3.8%
≤30d 28 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 46% +3.8%
≤90d 28 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 46% +3.8%
all 28 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 46% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 46% +3.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 46% -6.1%
15% -36.3% 39% -15.2%
20% -42.5% 32% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$39 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $114 +$51 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $38 −$21 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$26 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$74 +71%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $44 +$61 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $43 +$28 +66%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$23 +82%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $31 −$3 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $57 +$39 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $57 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $77 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $38 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $165 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $38 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $38 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $38 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $17 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $64 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $38 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $36 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $43 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $82 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records