Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xcef5…c0b9 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%14W / 81L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$7
politics 31% −$5
sports 12% +$125
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -4.8% -13.9% 5% 3% -9.7%
all 95 +3.4% -6.4% 15% 13% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 13% -8.8%
10% -15.4% 13% -17.5%
15% -23.6% 7% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×12.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 81
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage119d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $161 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $170 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $527 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $163 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $147 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $156 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $265 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $178 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $363 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $330 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $328 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 05 $484 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 41h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $161 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $111 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $123 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $123 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $170 34d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $170 37d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $124 37d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $124 41d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $161 41d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $161 62d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $149 62d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $149 62d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $126 62d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $126 62d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $128 62d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $128 62d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $179 63d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $179 63d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 63d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.98 · official $21.98 (match) · 274 history records