Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcef5…e9ac sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$770 (-9%) realized −$761 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$28
14 days−$259
30 days−$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$763
other 3% −$9
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 47% -10.7%
≤30d 67 -19.5% -27.1% 37% 36% -17.8%
≤90d 67 -19.5% -27.1% 37% 36% -17.8%
all 67 -19.5% -27.1% 37% 36% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 36% -17.8%
10% -34.1% 36% -25.7%
15% -40.5% 33% -32.9%
20% -46.3% 30% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$77 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$761
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage23d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists No 68¢ 66¢ $299 $290 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $170 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $244 −$243 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $89 −$88 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $325 +$185 +57%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $23 +$15 +64%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $224 +$100 +45%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $118 −$117 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $133 −$131 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $278 +$183 +66%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $72 +$20 +27%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $150 −$2 -2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $115 +$60 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $53 +$32 +60%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $38 −$37 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $54 +$56 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 08 $237 −$234 -99%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $378 −$13 -3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $439 +$272 +62%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $257 −$10 -4%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $284 −$193 -68%
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 05 $120 +$92 +76%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $42 +$30 +70%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $373 −$370 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 04 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $36 +$30 +83%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $223 +$184 +83%
Map Handicap: BCA (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) Jun 04 $34 +$42 +125%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 04 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $9 −$8 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $46 +$31 +67%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 03 $241 −$238 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $155 +$128 +83%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $83 −$82 -99%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $238 +$102 +43%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 01 $190 +$177 +93%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $154 −$152 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 31 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla May 30 $6 −$1 -19%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner May 30 $54 +$65 +119%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 30 $68 −$67 -98%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $32 −$31 -99%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 29 $80 −$79 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Play May 28 $146 +$117 +80%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 28 $123 +$140 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $263 −$13 -5%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 27 $126 −$124 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 66¢ $27 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 66¢ $2 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 66¢ $8 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 66¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 45¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 41¢ $170 19h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 69¢ $155 21h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $4 28h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $43 34h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $3 34h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $2 35h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $113 35h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $20 35h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 59¢ $60 35h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $89 36h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $325 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 60¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.26 · official $290.26 (match) · 209 history records