Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xcef1…0e4c crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-10%) realized −$265 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%60W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$112
sports 40% −$390
other 5% −$48
world 1% −$15
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +51.2% +36.8% 50% 50% -2.2%
≤30d 8 +51.2% +36.8% 50% 50% -2.2%
≤90d 204 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 27% -21.5%
all 204 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 27% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 27% -21.5%
10% -20.6% 27% -29.0%
15% -28.2% 25% -35.9%
20% -35.3% 24% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses60 / 144
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage86d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 59¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +125%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $19 −$10 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$6 +262%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$8 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +236%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 10 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 10 $4 +$3 +73%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 01 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 01 $10 +$11 +112%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 01 $5 +$7 +133%
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 01 $11 −$10 -87%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 01 $4 +$7 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 27 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 27? Apr 27 $34 −$32 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 27 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$19 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 27 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $11 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 19 $19 −$8 -44%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ $9 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 36¢ $10 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 50¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $15 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 40d
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 40d
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $6 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 41d
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 41d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.82 · official $40.82 (match) · 485 history records