Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcef1…8d6d other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18,422 (-8%) realized −$18,407 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,252per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$2,815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,812
7 days+$8,667
14 days−$19,657
30 days−$19,657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$22,372
crypto 10% +$2,516
sports 2% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.6% +2.8% 89% 53% -2.1%
≤30d 33 +5.9% -4.2% 85% 45% -17.5%
≤90d 33 +5.9% -4.2% 85% 45% -17.5%
all 33 +5.9% -4.2% 85% 45% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 45% -17.5%
10% -13.4% 27% -25.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -32.6%
20% -29.4% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$8,392) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$773 vs −$8,258 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2,815
Realized−$18,407
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6,252
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $1,260 $1,230 −$30 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $900 $870 −$30 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $670 $715 +$45 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $1,500 +$500 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $560 +$3 +0%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $1,825 +$675 +37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $851 +$8 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8,400 +$1,600 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$26 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $530 +$154 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18,939 +$2,555 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $501 +$191 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,151 −$284 -25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36,200 +$1,515 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2,013 +$78 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8,392 −$1,922 -23%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $640 +$268 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13,650 +$1,350 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,100 +$300 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7,701 +$1,598 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,001 +$43 +4%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23,451 +$2,898 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16,154 +$7,376 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $16,005 +$153 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50,225 −$34,354 -68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,412 −$4,622 -85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $752 +$21 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $740 +$9 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $700 +$44 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$14 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,177 +$169 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$8 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 −$107 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $563 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $83 6h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $26 6h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $620 7h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $1,095 7h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $554 7h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $750 7h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 7h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $46 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 58¢ $859 10h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $310 32h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $32 32h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $125 32h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $128 33h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $159 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 47h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $504 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,814.99 · official $2,814.99 (match) · 289 history records