Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xceef…38d2 crypto 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+3%) realized +$108 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%180W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day67.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$249
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -20.7% -28.3% 40% 40% -20.3%
≤30d 398 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 45% -8.7%
≤90d 398 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 45% -8.7%
all 398 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 45% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 44% -17.4%
15% -32.2% 44% -25.4%
20% -38.8% 44% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses180 / 218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)398 / 399
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day67.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 46¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$32 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$30 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$12 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$55 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $78 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.37 · official $1.15 (match) · 779 history records