Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xceee…9191 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-19%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$76
sports 32% −$122
culture 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 80% -23.2%
≤30d 6 +26.0% +14.0% 83% 83% -1.0%
≤90d 8 +9.9% -0.6% 75% 75% -2.1%
all 25 -11.7% -20.1% 64% 52% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 52% -27.5%
10% -27.7% 32% -34.5%
15% -34.7% 16% -40.8%
20% -41.1% 12% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$50 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage366d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$14 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$7 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $74 +$17 +23%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Concacaf Gold Cup: Panama vs. Honduras (To Advance) Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Jun 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Pachuca beat Al Hilal? Jun 27 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg? Jun 27 $41 +$12 +28%
Marlins vs. Giants Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Marlins vs. Giants Jun 26 $34 +$6 +18%
Dodgers vs. Rockies Jun 26 $32 +$3 +10%
Cubs vs. Cardinals Jun 26 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Al Ain beat Wydad AC? Jun 26 $112 −$107 -96%
Will Manchester City beat Juventus? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +5%
Dodgers vs. Rockies Jun 26 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Monterrey beat Urawa? Jun 26 $22 +$17 +75%
Will Canada beat El Salvador? Jun 25 $78 +$22 +28%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Guatemala beat Guadeloupe? Jun 25 $48 +$52 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 8m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $50 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $50 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $43 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $42 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $100 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $39 20d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 20¢ $0 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 20¢ $2 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 20¢ $6 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 20¢ $2 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 21¢ $2 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 18¢ $2 39d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 70d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $74 70d
Alabama vs. Oklahoma BUY Oklahoma 73¢ $25 186d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 234d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 238d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 238d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 238d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 238d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 238d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 238d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.17 · official $54.17 (match) · 72 history records