Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcee8…63fd other 38 markets active 2d ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+12%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$21
culture 28% +$18
sports 9% −$15
tech 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -56.7% -60.8% 23% 23% -60.1%
≤30d 15 -62.4% -66.0% 20% 20% -63.2%
≤90d 18 -47.9% -52.9% 28% 28% -57.4%
all 38 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 37% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 37% +1.4%
10% -25.2% 37% -8.3%
15% -32.4% 34% -17.1%
20% -39.0% 32% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage235d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuno Borges vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 05 $9 +$11 +122%
Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (Decem Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jan 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $3 +$7 +211%
Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by November 30? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix Dec 02 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 30 $65 +$16 +24%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $43 +$54 +127%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Nov 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 Nov 11 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 27 $2 +$6 +265%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 26 $3 +$14 +467%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 4d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $5 11d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 39¢ $4 11d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 46¢ $4 17d
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 17d
Nuno Borges vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 63¢ $6 19d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 65¢ $7 33d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 57¢ $6 34d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 49¢ $5 34d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 45d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 112d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 130d
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records