Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcee1…700c other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$11
other 24% −$4
politics 15% $0
sports 9% −$2
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 8 -9.5% -18.2% 12% 0% -15.6%
≤90d 8 -9.5% -18.2% 12% 0% -15.6%
all 34 -6.3% -15.2% 47% 0% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -13.1%
10% -23.3% 0% -21.4%
15% -30.7% 0% -29.0%
20% -37.5% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $24 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 −$9 -41%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $1 −$1 -47%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13? May 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 12 $11 $0 -4%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on May 8? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? May 07 $4 $0 +8%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Indiana vs. Oregon Mar 03 $16 −$1 -5%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 03 $17 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $27 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $28 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $6 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $27 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $27 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $23 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $24 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 10¢ $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 10¢ $4 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 10¢ $4 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $35 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $35 25d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 183d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 336d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw SELL Yes $1 355d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? SELL No 99¢ $10 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records