Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcedd…0dd4 sports 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-6%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%72W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$93
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$63
sports 29% −$62
other 14% −$41
world 4% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 32% -14.5%
≤30d 184 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 184 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 33% -13.8%
all 184 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 33% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 29% -22.0%
15% -34.1% 23% -29.6%
20% -40.5% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses72 / 112
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$40 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $71 +$34 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $56 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $166 +$39 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 $0 -1%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $67 −$23 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +12%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$5 -34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +149%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $16 +$1 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +341%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$1 -3%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 -47%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 +$2 +39%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 $0 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3 +$3 +109%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$4 +188%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $112 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $63 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $90 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records