Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

CE 0xced9…b265 sports 24 markets active 1d ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days−$49

14 days−$3

30 days−$3

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+1.9%	-7.8%	45%	45%	-16.2%
≤30d	21	+3.9%	-6.0%	48%	48%	-9.9%
≤90d	21	+3.9%	-6.0%	48%	48%	-9.9%
all	21	+3.9%	-6.0%	48%	48%	-9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.0%	48%	-9.9%
10%	-15.0%	48%	-18.5%
15%	-23.2%	48%	-26.4%
20%	-30.7%	33%	-33.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late -11% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$167

Realized+$1

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage9d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$120	$102	−$18 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$60	$65	+$5 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$16	+$12	+73%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 15	$20	−$7	-35%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$31	−$9	-30%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$30	−$30	-99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$20	+$31	+154%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$20	+$18	+86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$31	+$20	+66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$26	−$9	-35%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$34	−$20	-58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$36	+$29	+80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$31	+$72	+234%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 12	$36	+$19	+52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 12	$18	+$7	+40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$48	−$48	-100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4	Jun 11	$102	−$35	-34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$50	+$21	+42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 08	$102	+$46	+45%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals AND Will Aus	BUY	22¢	$8	34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	57¢	$16	40h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner	BUY 100 Thieves	67¢	$3	47h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner	BUY 100 Thieves	67¢	$7	47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	BUY Over	43¢	$31	2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL FUT Esports	17¢	$13	2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY FUT Esports	25¢	$20	2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL TheMongolz	22¢	$21	3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	30¢	$31	3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	64¢	$30	3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$20	3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL FUT Esports	82¢	$38	3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY FUT Esports	43¢	$20	3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Monte	65¢	$51	4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Monte	38¢	$31	4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	35¢	$31	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL TheMongolz	13¢	$17	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY TheMongolz	19¢	$26	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL B8	10¢	$15	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY B8	23¢	$23	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY B8	23¢	$6	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY B8	23¢	$3	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY B8	23¢	$3	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	13¢	$21	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	30¢	$31	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	SELL BetBoom Team	65¢	$64	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	35¢	$36	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL BetBoom Team	99¢	$102	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	29¢	$31	5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL FUT Esports	28¢	$13	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.04 · official $167.04 (match) · 65 history records