Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xced8…01fd
crypto · 665 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$204 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$295 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$321
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses318 / 331
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)649 / 665
History coverage26d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 5 History 649 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$202
14 days+$195
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$37 +176%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$18 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$24 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $141 +$61 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$24 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$28 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$21 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $83 +$79 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$14 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$8 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$35 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$83
other 19% +$95
sports 9% −$274
tech 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $26 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $204 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $102 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $153 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 23¢ $36 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $41 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $162 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 27h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 28h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 28h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 59¢ $202 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 50¢ $101 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 35¢ $51 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 57¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 40¢ $31 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? A BUY 32¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +4.3% -5.6% 52% 52% -6.1%
≤30d 649 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 49% -12.5%
≤90d 649 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 49% -12.5%
all 649 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 49% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 49% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 48% -20.8%
15% -27.5% 48% -28.5%
20% -34.6% 47% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.57 · official $725.57 · 1815 history records