Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

CE 0xced5…d46b other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$10 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+44.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+59.2%	+44.0%	75%	75%	+57.9%
≤30d	4	+59.2%	+44.0%	75%	75%	+57.9%
≤90d	4	+59.2%	+44.0%	75%	75%	+57.9%
all	4	+59.2%	+44.0%	75%	75%	+57.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.0%	75%	+57.9%
10%	+30.2%	75%	+42.8%
15%	+17.7%	75%	+29.0%
20%	+6.1%	75%	+16.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +75% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$168

Realized+$10

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage15d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$85	$66	−$19 (-22%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$50	$56	+$6 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$31	+$52	+170%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$15	+$9	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$25	+$27	+105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND	BUY	31¢	$36	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$15	12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	36¢	$31	13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$25	32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$87	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.51 · official $202.51 · 28 history records