Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xced5…17f4 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$4
other 29% +$5
politics 10% +$6
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.7% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 7% -9.3%
all 43 +9.2% -1.2% 30% 9% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 9% -8.6%
10% -10.7% 5% -17.3%
15% -19.3% 5% -25.3%
20% -27.2% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage299d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 77¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$3 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $56 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $30 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $41 +$5 +14%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $1 +$3 +313%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $21 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $42 +$1 +4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $1 $0 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 21 $19 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $4 $0 +5%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $44 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $13 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $57 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $14 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $56 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $42 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $54 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $60 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $60 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.20 · official $9.78 (match) · 161 history records