Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xced2…1076 politics 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3,092 (-2%) realized +$11,875 · open −$14,967
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%52W / 38L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$1,187per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$13,722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$366
14 days+$436
30 days+$6,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$319
politics 37% −$4,130
other 2% −$151
culture 1% +$12
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$418
sports 0% −$337
economics 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.7% +0.2% 100% 100% +0.2%
≤30d 12 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 50% +10.8%
≤90d 35 -12.5% -20.9% 54% 43% -1.4%
all 90 +20.0% +8.6% 58% 50% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 50% -0.0%
10% -1.8% 43% -9.6%
15% -11.3% 40% -18.3%
20% -20.0% 29% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$562) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$514 vs −$430 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$13,722
Realized+$11,875
Unrealized−$14,967
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses52 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)90 / 110
History coverage509d
Avg bet$1,187
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 78¢ $4,448 $4,476 +$29 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ $15,904 $3,513 −$12,391 (-78%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $2,215 $1,669 −$546 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No $2,623 $1,175 −$1,448 (-55%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $926 $675 −$250 (-27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No $580 $611 +$31 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No $879 $555 −$324 (-37%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No 77¢ 81¢ $442 $466 +$25 (+6%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $199 $210 +$11 (+6%)
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $190 $208 +$18 (+9%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $74 $49 −$26 (-34%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? No 75¢ 72¢ $31 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Yes 73¢ 34¢ $46 $22 −$24 (-53%)
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? No 36¢ 76¢ $9 $20 +$10 (+107%)
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? Yes 90¢ 68¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-24%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3,424 +$366 +11%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 13? Jun 07 $28 +$22 +76%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5? Jun 07 $291 +$291 +100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $189 −$189 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18,375 +$7,856 +43%
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 28 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 28 $2,005 −$2,005 -100%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 28 $147 +$135 +92%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? May 27 $1,076 +$118 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $2,580 +$37 +1%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 15? May 16 $726 +$32 +4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more? May 13 $112 −$101 -90%
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more? May 13 $641 −$253 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $6,292 +$2,345 +37%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 12 $231 −$169 -73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $3,044 +$453 +15%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? May 06 $79 −$19 -24%
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026? May 01 $732 +$276 +38%
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? May 01 $521 +$1,109 +213%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? May 01 $7,327 +$5,997 +82%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $22,866 −$6,612 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1,800 +$152 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 26 $3,712 +$1,568 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $2,520 +$461 +18%
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more? Apr 20 $870 +$84 +10%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $5,485 −$3,918 -71%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $273 +$37 +14%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2,253 +$478 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 21 $124 −$60 -49%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin Mar 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $335 +$385 +115%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 15 $1,798 +$954 +53%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 11 $39 −$32 -83%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $138 +$582 +421%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 09 $1,627 −$759 -47%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 08 $562 +$39 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $1,055 +$363 +34%
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas S Mar 02 $956 +$75 +8%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 01 $167 +$94 +56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $314 +$1,106 +353%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Mar 01 $14 −$1 -8%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Mar 01 $55 −$22 -39%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $38 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $233 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $45 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $45 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $52 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $59 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $170 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $221 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $974 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $563 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $44 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $111 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $53 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $343 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $192 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $331 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $333 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $337 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $86 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $59 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $126 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $18 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $27 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $47 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $57 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $19 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $13 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $65 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,722.46 · official $13,725.40 (match) · 901 history records