Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xced2…b74d sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-12%) realized −$105 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%58W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$79
14 days+$65
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$72
crypto 34% −$50
other 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +22.3% +10.7% 46% 46% +26.3%
≤30d 61 +7.9% -2.4% 44% 44% +4.3%
≤90d 132 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 39% -9.0%
all 154 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 38% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -20.8%
10% -29.0% 37% -28.4%
15% -35.9% 36% -35.3%
20% -42.1% 31% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses58 / 96
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)154 / 162
History coverage171d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 40¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$6 +126%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$16 +223%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$17 +194%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$5 +132%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $5 +$10 +188%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +235%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$7 +145%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $9 +$25 +276%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$9 +121%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$8 +149%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$11 +213%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 38m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 38m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 39m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 39m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 39m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 39m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $5 44m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 95¢ $12 56m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 41¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $23 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 86¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 59¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 80¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $6 5h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 34¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 11¢ $3 5h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 35¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 33¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 36¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 99¢ $9 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 38¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 39¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 42¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner SELL Grey Trac 28¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.81 · official $13.81 (match) · 263 history records