Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcecf…78b2 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$424 (-18%) realized −$395 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$55
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$28
other 26% −$73
politics 11% −$173
economics 10% −$58
crypto 9% −$40
world 5% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.6% -24.6% 22% 22% -16.1%
≤30d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 30% 30% -11.5%
≤90d 21 -10.1% -18.6% 29% 29% -12.6%
all 45 -4.0% -13.1% 31% 31% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 31% -28.4%
10% -21.5% 31% -35.2%
15% -29.0% 27% -41.5%
20% -36.0% 24% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$37 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage336d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 16¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 14¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $36 −$16 -44%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$30 -58%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $71 −$17 -24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 +$23 +46%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $56 −$5 -8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $24 −$18 -78%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$28 -54%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$27 -54%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 24 $41 +$131 +321%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $41 −$9 -21%
Rayan: 1+ goals Jun 24 $36 −$5 -15%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $48 +$52 +109%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
João Félix: 1+ assists Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 +$27 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 28 $30 −$10 -32%
LoL: Sentinels vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 28 $20 −$3 -14%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 28 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 28 $50 +$59 +117%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 27 $49 −$28 -58%
LoL: Shifters vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 27 $42 +$13 +32%
LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 02 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 02 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 01 $50 +$75 +150%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 01 $49 +$37 +75%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO1) Jan 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $171 −$154 -90%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the announc Dec 19 $3 +$17 +561%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Trump say "Crypto " or "Bitcoin" during the announcement on Decem Dec 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 19 $50 +$62 +125%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Dec 15 $50 +$121 +243%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists SELL Yes 16¢ $20 33m
Michael Olise: 1+ goals SELL Yes 13¢ $21 34m
Norway vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 45¢ $46 48m
Norway vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 40¢ $7 48m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 69¢ $74 48m
Norway vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $71 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $36 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 25¢ $52 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 26¢ $20 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 26¢ $36 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 5¢ $5 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $23 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $24 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 25¢ $24 44h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $172 45h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $32 45h
Rayan: 1+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $30 45h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $36 46h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $41 46h
Rayan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $36 46h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $51 46h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $41 46h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $41 46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.81 · official $140.07 · 90 history records