Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xcecd…ee5f
other · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage289d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 89¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $29 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? Sep 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 13 $34 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 10 $16 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $4 $0 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4400 on August 28 at 4PM ET? Sep 05 $34 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 22% $0
other 20% $0
world 18% +$2
sports 17% $0
crypto 12% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $31 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $30 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $11 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $29 271d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? SELL No 98¢ $6 271d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $29 271d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $29 271d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $29 271d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 272d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Abbott Elementary win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $31 272d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? BUY No 98¢ $6 272d
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 4 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 4 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 0% -6.6%
all 36 +0.4% -9.1% 25% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.78 · official $33.78 (match) · 122 history records