Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xcecb…bb6d crypto 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$861 (-5%) realized −$845 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate69%274W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$16
14 days−$484
30 days−$1,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$950
politics 1% +$7
economics 0% −$39
other 0% −$24
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.8% -12.9% 73% 64% -5.0%
≤30d 78 -29.7% -36.4% 56% 49% -50.6%
≤90d 343 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 64% -14.7%
all 395 -5.1% -14.1% 69% 61% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 61% -15.2%
10% -22.3% 25% -23.4%
15% -29.8% 8% -30.8%
20% -36.7% 3% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$747
Realized−$845
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses274 / 121
Open positions9
Markets (closed)395 / 404
History coverage348d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $183 $176 −$7 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $138 $136 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 27? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $122 $120 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $103 $107 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? No 85¢ 80¢ $96 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27? No 82¢ 76¢ $95 $88 −$7 (-7%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? No 73¢ 90¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+23%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 29? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 24 $12 −$8 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $23 +$4 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $23 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? Jun 24 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? Jun 23 $93 +$18 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 23 $35 −$22 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $47 +$5 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 20? Jun 21 $0 $0 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $57 +$23 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$8 -32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$34 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 14? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 13 $152 −$146 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 13? Jun 12 $24 −$12 -50%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 12 $24 −$12 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$18 +32%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? Jun 10 $53 −$51 -95%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 10 $108 −$103 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$5 +41%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$26 +26%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $79 −$70 -88%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $94 +$17 +18%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $162 +$32 +20%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 15m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 27? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 36m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 85¢ $46 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 29? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 27? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $48 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $49 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $48 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $49 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 87¢ $45 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 87¢ $45 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $46 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 86¢ $47 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 87¢ $47 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? BUY No 73¢ $12 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $11 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $12 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $12 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $12 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.48 · official $747.48 (match) · 2334 history records