Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcec6…7566 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$263 (+4%) realized +$186 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%51W / 71L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$302
14 days−$216
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$429
sports 18% +$425
weather 15% −$336
politics 15% +$549
economics 8% +$171
finance 3% +$47
crypto 3% −$135
culture 1% +$8
world 1% −$32
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -60.2% -64.0% 25% 25% -63.9%
≤30d 9 -9.3% -17.9% 56% 56% -29.2%
≤90d 32 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -25.9%
all 122 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 41% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 41% -7.0%
10% -26.6% 36% -15.9%
15% -33.7% 30% -24.0%
20% -40.2% 27% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$24 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$186
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses51 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage571d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 66¢ 100¢ $132 $200 +$68 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $83 $92 +$10 (+11%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $138 −$136 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $125 +$74 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $118 −$116 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $125 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 10 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $130 +$70 +54%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $20 +$16 +79%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $192 +$118 +62%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 7 Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 8 Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 5? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 10? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9 Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Scor Apr 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $5 +$6 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? Apr 20 $7 +$13 +186%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 20 $40 +$39 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 6? Apr 11 $2 +$4 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 7? Apr 11 $3 +$7 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5? Apr 11 $5 +$5 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? Apr 11 $7 +$13 +174%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $11 +$5 +50%
Alcaraz vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5 Feb 21 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $49 +$51 +104%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Coleman Wong vs Mariano Navone Jan 14 $400 +$100 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) opening price Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $189 +$71 +37%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Jan 05 $8 +$2 +30%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? Jan 05 $12 +$4 +32%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 05 $9 +$11 +127%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jan 05 $44 +$16 +35%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Marin Cilic vs Adrian Mannarino Jan 05 $200 +$63 +32%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? Jan 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? Jan 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Taylor Swift say "Christmas" on The Late Show on December 10? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Jan 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Jan 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jan 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 30 $11 +$9 +85%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 30 $18 +$14 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $44 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $13 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $52 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $138 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $118 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $93 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $32 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $81 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $60 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $51 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 66¢ $129 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 66¢ $3 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 55¢ $20 10d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 98¢ $207 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.01 · official $532.01 (match) · 371 history records