Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcebe…247a sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$120 (-25%) realized −$119 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$53
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% -24.2%
≤30d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 39% 39% -38.0%
≤90d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 39% 39% -38.0%
all 18 -15.2% -23.3% 39% 39% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 39% -38.0%
10% -30.6% 33% -44.0%
15% -37.3% 33% -49.4%
20% -43.5% 33% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 62¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 60¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $24 +$25 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $13 +$14 +109%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $61 +$13 +21%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $23 +$26 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $11 +$12 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $6 +$9 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $31 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $43 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $10 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $10 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $13 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $14 29h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $55 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $28 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 41¢ $25 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $14 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $9 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $40 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $20 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $23 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $8 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $6 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $11 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $8 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $9 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $12 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $10 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $15 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $52 8d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.08 · official $73.08 (match) · 41 history records