Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceba…3c27 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$3
other 27% $0
sports 17% $0
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -8.9%
all 39 -0.8% -10.2% 31% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage284d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 24 $24 −$4 -17%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 22 $29 $0 +2%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $49 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $3 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $41 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $16 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $28 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $49 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $7 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $13 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $28 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $0 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $27 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $48 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $48 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $53 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $53 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $3 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $13 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $42 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records