Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xceb8…990b other 39 markets active 5d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$194 (+1%) realized +$221 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%17W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$134
sports 48% +$51
politics 2% −$20
other 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 89% 11% -8.7%
all 19 +3.9% -6.0% 89% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 11% -8.7%
10% -15.0% 11% -17.4%
15% -23.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -30.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×262.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2232.19 per $1 lost it wins $2232.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses17 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)19 / 39
History coverage74d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $39 $66 +$27 (+69%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $39 $12 −$27 (-69%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Travis Bazzana win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 99¢ 89¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $6 $0 +6%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $14 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will Kazuma Okamoto win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $5 $0 -1%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 14 $16 +$4 +28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 01 $9,972 +$52 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $10,191 +$134 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 4d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $6 14d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $9 15d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 89¢ $6 21d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 21d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 21d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 21d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 21d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 21d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $7 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $9 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $5 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $5 21d
Will Travis Bazzana win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 99¢ $7 21d
Will Kazuma Okamoto win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 98¢ $7 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.39 · official $155.39 (match) · 168 history records