Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceb6…3c97 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$72 (-12%) realized −$42 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$161
other 24% +$57
sports 5% −$4
economics 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.4% +26.1% 17% 17% +12.6%
≤30d 18 -8.9% -17.6% 28% 28% -24.5%
≤90d 18 -8.9% -17.6% 28% 28% -24.5%
all 18 -8.9% -17.6% 28% 28% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 28% -24.5%
10% -25.5% 28% -31.7%
15% -32.7% 28% -38.3%
20% -39.3% 17% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$25 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $21 +$133 +642%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$3 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $19 −$18 -94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$11 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$22 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$20 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$25 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 38h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $46 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $19 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $27 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $40 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $41 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $32 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 34 history records