Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xceb5…f397 other 572 markets active 2h ago coverage 641d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$25 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate64%348W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$86
14 days+$58
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$78
world 28% −$10
politics 19% −$14
crypto 5% −$16
sports 2% −$10
tech 2% −$15
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +7.0% -3.2% 90% 45% +1.0%
≤30d 83 -2.2% -11.6% 75% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 212 -4.5% -13.6% 66% 25% -8.9%
all 541 -2.9% -12.2% 64% 27% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 27% -9.2%
10% -20.6% 13% -17.9%
15% -28.2% 9% -25.8%
20% -35.3% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

641d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses348 / 193
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions31
Markets (closed)541 / 572
History coverage641d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 84¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 85¢ 84¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 78¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Cambria FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 91¢ 80¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 84¢ 83¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 52¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
SlingshotDAO FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 98¢ 85¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 95¢ 95¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 89¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $83 +$10 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$11 +16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$4 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$7 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$9 +39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 08 $12 −$8 -63%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $12 −$9 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $17 −$7 -42%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +5%
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "President Biden" this week? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +17%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $4 $0 +6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 03 $7 $0 -4%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 03 $8 $0 -3%
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -1%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +5%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 03 $6 $0 +5%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $19 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $6 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $6 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $14 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $26 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $4 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $35 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $30 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $25 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $42 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $42 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $41 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $40 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $81 24h
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $10 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $20 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $70 29h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $6 46h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $49 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $50 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $24 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $7 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.94 · official $255.94 (match) · 1534 history records