Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceb4…0ad5 world 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 16% −$5
sports 11% −$2
politics 9% −$1
economics 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 14% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 71 +28.7% +16.5% 45% 4% -9.6%
all 99 +21.7% +10.1% 42% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 6% -9.8%
10% -0.4% 3% -18.4%
15% -10.1% 2% -26.3%
20% -18.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage527d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $86 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $69 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $75 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $21 −$1 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $173 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $89 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $56 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $15 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $40 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $82 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $38 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $108 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $46 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $41 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $39 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $41 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $38 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $35 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.29 · official $36.60 (match) · 407 history records