Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceb4…b27a sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+23%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$18
sports 30% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.9% -32.9% 38% 38% +11.4%
≤30d 8 -25.9% -32.9% 38% 38% +11.4%
≤90d 8 -25.9% -32.9% 38% 38% +11.4%
all 8 -25.9% -32.9% 38% 38% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 38% +11.4%
10% -39.4% 38% +0.7%
15% -45.2% 38% -9.0%
20% -50.6% 38% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 +$15 +66%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +73%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$1 -19%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$5 +73%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 90¢ $32 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $6 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $6 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 22¢ $2 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $5 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 15¢ $2 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $3 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 17¢ $3 10h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records