Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xceb1…4249 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$265 · open −$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$106
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$326
other 30% −$243
world 12% +$8
finance 8% −$197
sports 5% +$21
economics 5% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +35.9% +23.0% 29% 29% -11.7%
≤30d 59 +11.6% +0.9% 49% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 59 +11.6% +0.9% 49% 46% -2.7%
all 59 +11.6% +0.9% 49% 46% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 46% -2.7%
10% -8.7% 41% -12.0%
15% -17.5% 39% -20.5%
20% -25.6% 37% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$28 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$849
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions26
Markets (closed)59 / 85
History coverage29d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $178 $222 +$44 (+25%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 68¢ $59 $68 +$10 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-6%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $52 $62 +$10 (+20%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 56¢ 4¢ $168 $14 −$154 (-92%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ 3¢ $80 $11 −$69 (-86%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+71%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 41¢ 2¢ $82 $5 −$77 (-94%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-80%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$92 +1116%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -39%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$3 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$18 -48%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 −$29 -36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $97 +$48 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 +$30 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $128 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$26 +102%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 03 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 03 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $206 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $63 +$42 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $3 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $50 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $849.36 · official $849.43 (match) · 310 history records