Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xceb0…91fa sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-11%) realized −$55 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$63
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +1.2% -8.5% 34% 30% -30.6%
≤30d 68 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 26% -20.9%
≤90d 68 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 26% -20.9%
all 68 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 26% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 26% -20.9%
10% -18.1% 22% -28.4%
15% -26.0% 18% -35.3%
20% -33.3% 16% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 44¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 45¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Alliance Guardians 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $7 −$2 -24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $9 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$9 +712%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +140%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $6 −$1 -18%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $4 −$3 -92%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $4 +$4 +119%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 13 $3 +$8 +262%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$9 +712%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $9 +$2 +17%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $2 +$8 +510%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $11 +$9 +83%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $23 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 38¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 34¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 52¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 43¢ $4 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 43¢ $4 23h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 78¢ $9 30h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $5 42h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America SELL Hokori 10¢ $0 43h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 9¢ $1 43h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $6 43h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $5 46h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 61¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL ex-RUBY 49¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY ex-RUBY 49¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 59¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $7 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 36¢ $4 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $4 3d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $5 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $2 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $10 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 12¢ $1 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva BUY Alicia Dudeney 93¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 46¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu SELL Fire Flux Esports 48¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Fire Flux Esports 57¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.43 (match) · 162 history records