Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceaf…c748 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-18%) realized −$69 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$56
sports 33% +$11
world 2% −$8
crypto 2% −$8
politics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +19.7% +8.3% 27% 27% +7.3%
≤30d 16 +12.2% +1.5% 25% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 43 -38.1% -44.0% 16% 16% -48.6%
all 60 -9.4% -18.0% 33% 32% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 32% -27.9%
10% -25.8% 30% -34.8%
15% -33.0% 30% -41.1%
20% -39.6% 30% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage193d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $43 $41 −$1 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran Jun 16 $1 +$4 +376%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$24 +786%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$6 +103%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 +$3 +65%
WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs China May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $13 +$31 +238%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $5 −$2 -53%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 +$10 +216%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jan 23 $2 +$2 +113%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jan 16 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 12 $46 −$16 -35%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jan 12 $19 −$1 -6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $5 +$5 +108%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 11 $2 +$2 +67%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 11 $3 +$2 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $3 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran SELL 66¢ $5 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $3 23h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 4¢ $2 23h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (- BUY 2¢ $1 23h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (- BUY 2¢ $2 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran BUY 13¢ $1 28h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 11¢ $3 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 41h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 47h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2 BUY 4¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? AND Will Qatar vs. Swit BUY 5¢ $1 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 20d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 33d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 33d
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 33d
WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs China BUY Japan 49¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.20 · official $51.20 (match) · 145 history records