Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xceaf…046e
other · 16 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 6 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Over 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Yes 42¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +215%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 83% −$10
sports 13% +$4
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 18h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 18h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 20h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +40.4% +27.0% 60% 60% -19.3%
≤30d 10 +40.4% +27.0% 60% 60% -19.3%
≤90d 10 +40.4% +27.0% 60% 60% -19.3%
all 10 +40.4% +27.0% 60% 60% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.0% 60% -19.3%
10% +14.9% 60% -27.0%
15% +3.8% 60% -34.0%
20% -6.4% 50% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.46 · official $6.46 (match) · 22 history records