Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CE 0xcead…5bd0 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$75 (+19%) realized +$81 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%10W / 13L

Drawdown77%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit49%portable

Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+45.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+61.0%	+45.7%	43%	43%	+20.6%
≤30d	23	+61.0%	+45.7%	43%	43%	+20.6%
≤90d	23	+61.0%	+45.7%	43%	43%	+20.6%
all	23	+61.0%	+45.7%	43%	43%	+20.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.7%	43%	+20.6%
10%	+31.7%	43%	+9.0%
15%	+19.0%	43%	-1.5%
20%	+7.3%	35%	-11.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +61% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late +97% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$132

Realized+$81

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses10 / 13

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions16

Markets (closed)23 / 39

History coverage6d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown77%

Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 16 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$30	$28	−$2 (-7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	68¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	30¢	28¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-7%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	22¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-18%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	44¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	Yes	39¢	38¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	+$17	+325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	+$20	+388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	+$45	+874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$5	+$3	+59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada?	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+50%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 17	$21	+$56	+272%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$30	+$30	+99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$10	+$23	+226%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	1h
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	4h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$25	20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	20h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	25h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	27h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$5	27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	27h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	46h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.19 · official $132.21 (match) · 52 history records