Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcead…02d3 weather 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate81%69W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$13
other 16% −$23
sports 8% +$24
crypto 6% −$11
world 2% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 85 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 85 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 2% -9.8%
all 85 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses69 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)85 / 102
History coverage24d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 26? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? Jun 27 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $51 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 26 $15 −$2 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $41 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 27? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $49 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 96¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 9h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.08 · official $615.08 (match) · 332 history records