Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xceab…dce7 other 620 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,343 (+8%) realized +$6,957 · open +$386
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%323W / 226L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$405
7 days+$998
14 days+$94
30 days+$1,992
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$799
other 36% +$5,843
world 10% −$1,057
sports 5% −$100
crypto 5% +$1,395
tech 3% −$287
culture 2% −$10
economics 1% −$119
finance 0% −$206
weather 0% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +8.5% -1.8% 56% 51% +5.6%
≤30d 267 -0.8% -10.3% 54% 49% +0.9%
≤90d 497 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 51% -8.8%
all 549 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 52% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 52% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 38% -12.6%
15% -22.4% 30% -21.1%
20% -30.0% 25% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$85 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$6,523
Realized+$6,957
Unrealized+$386
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses323 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions71
Markets (closed)549 / 620
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$154
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 78¢ $738 $778 +$40 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? No 65¢ 88¢ $355 $484 +$129 (+36%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 84¢ $386 $418 +$32 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $410 $410 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 46¢ $412 $363 −$49 (-12%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 64¢ $235 $296 +$60 (+26%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 68¢ $262 $274 +$12 (+5%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 70¢ $216 $271 +$56 (+26%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 58¢ $296 $246 −$50 (-17%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 99¢ $180 $198 +$18 (+10%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 95¢ $174 $195 +$21 (+12%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 42¢ $191 $183 −$8 (-4%)
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 91¢ $172 $181 +$9 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 97¢ $148 $160 +$12 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 44¢ $124 $158 +$34 (+27%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 92¢ $147 $156 +$9 (+6%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 52¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+8%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $70 $83 +$13 (+19%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 18¢ $85 $77 −$9 (-10%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 34¢ $48 $76 +$29 (+60%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $71 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? No 40¢ 91¢ $32 $73 +$41 (+128%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 89¢ 88¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 30¢ $56 $61 +$5 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $55 +$16 +30%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$10 +83%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $28 +$7 +23%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $78 +$2 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$18 +51%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 +$5 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $21 +$9 +42%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $39 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $36 +$5 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 +$19 +79%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 +$21 +101%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $37 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $39 +$2 +6%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 +$21 +97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $24 +$18 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 +$21 +101%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $74 +$8 +11%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $82 +$50 +61%
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 1 Jun 19 $21 +$26 +122%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Trump say "Dog" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$25 +170%
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June Jun 18 $3 +$17 +525%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $108 +$92 +85%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $16 +$8 +53%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Czechia vs South Afri Jun 18 $43 +$16 +38%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $24 +$16 +64%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $73 +$9 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 +$26 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $17 +$23 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $18 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $14 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $73 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $17 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $14 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $15 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $8 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 7h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY No 40¢ $16 25h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY No 40¢ $16 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $35 26h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 69¢ $14 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 47¢ $10 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $11 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,523.14 · official $6,523.15 (match) · 3500 history records