Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xceaa…9ffe sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,294 (-29%) realized −$1,294 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,304
other 5% $0
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -71.6%
≤30d 5 -41.3% -46.9% 40% 20% -66.1%
≤90d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 36% -27.1%
all 36 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 31% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 31% -36.2%
10% -36.2% 31% -42.3%
15% -42.3% 31% -47.8%
20% -48.0% 31% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$145 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$1,294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage226d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $90 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $197 −$197 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $101 +$95 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 31 $370 −$370 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $204 +$176 +86%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 19 $103 +$99 +97%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $90 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Apr 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $106 +$101 +96%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $101 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $391 −$391 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) Mar 19 $203 +$188 +92%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 10 $104 +$99 +96%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 27 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $96 +$100 +104%
Islanders vs. Devils Feb 07 $381 −$381 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Feb 05 $198 +$183 +92%
Heat vs. Bulls Feb 03 $102 +$95 +92%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jan 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Sharks vs. Red Wings Jan 19 $95 +$51 +54%
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Jan 07 $107 −$107 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5 Jan 02 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) Dec 27 $108 +$104 +96%
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) Dec 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Sabres vs. Flames Dec 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Dec 02 $39 $0 +1%
Packers vs. Lions: O/U 48.5 Dec 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 2 Nov 27 $44 +$1 +2%
Stars vs. Oilers Nov 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 20 $4 $0 +6%
Texans vs. Titans: O/U 37.5 Nov 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 16 $54 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $197 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 21d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $370 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $4 30d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $204 38d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $103 49d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 49d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY 76ers 51¢ $207 81d
Blues vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 51¢ $106 88d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $90 88d
Canadiens vs. Red Wings BUY Canadiens 52¢ $391 99d
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) BUY Pistons 52¢ $203 108d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 51¢ $104 112d
Jazz vs. Grizzlies BUY Jazz 46¢ $196 126d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $96 130d
Islanders vs. Devils BUY Devils 51¢ $381 141d
Penguins vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 52¢ $198 142d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Heat 52¢ $102 148d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $148 158d
Sharks vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 65¢ $95 161d
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 51¢ $107 172d
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5 BUY Over 51¢ $204 181d
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 181d
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) BUY Chiefs 51¢ $108 183d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY Yes $5 189d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 189d
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) BUY Celtics 49¢ $98 193d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $101 193d
Sabres vs. Flames BUY Sabres 50¢ $98 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.95 · official $89.95 (match) · 125 history records