Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xcea9…57c6 crypto 890 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,962 (-19%) realized −$1,928 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%334W / 555L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day75.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$149
14 days−$237
30 days−$1,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,264
sports 0% −$17
politics 0% −$5
other 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 13% -19.0%
≤30d 238 -20.5% -28.1% 34% 22% -27.2%
≤90d 889 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 28% -29.8%
all 889 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 28% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 28% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 17% -36.5%
15% -41.5% 11% -42.7%
20% -47.2% 9% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,928
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses334 / 555
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)889 / 890
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 889 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 22¢ 2¢ $38 $4 −$34 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$10 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $98 −$70 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$8 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$3 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$16 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$15 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$5 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$2 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$2 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$4 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$2 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $61 −$5 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$2 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$21 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$41 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$1 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$10 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $56 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$24 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $111 −$2 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$4 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $33 −$1 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $67 −$7 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $40 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $16 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $71 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $42 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $34.37 · 3500 history records