Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea7…8f37 politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 683d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$148 (+4%) realized +$159 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%67W / 53L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$148
other 27% +$91
world 11% −$9
tech 6% −$47
sports 2% $0
economics 2% −$23
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.4% +3.5% 80% 80% -2.0%
≤30d 7 -18.3% -26.0% 57% 57% -21.5%
≤90d 24 -48.5% -53.4% 38% 33% -29.8%
all 120 -5.7% -14.7% 56% 45% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -4.8%
10% -22.9% 29% -13.9%
15% -30.3% 18% -22.3%
20% -37.1% 11% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

683d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses67 / 53
Open positions12
Markets (closed)120 / 132
History coverage683d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 08 $30 +$4 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Mar 24 $28 −$10 -36%
Will the government shutdown end November 14? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 15? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 17? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August? Mar 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Mar 24 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Signing tonight? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 16? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Poll" during Signing tonight? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Kash Patel out by July 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $30 −$5 -17%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $10 −$5 -47%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $40 −$36 -91%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Israel or the US target Tehran? Jan 28 $10 +$6 +63%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $20 +$8 +39%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 24 $110 +$29 +26%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jan 24 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? Jan 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jan 21 $5 −$1 -15%
Raptors vs. Warriors Jan 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Heat vs. Kings Jan 21 $10 +$2 +25%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers Jan 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 21 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Jan 21 $20 −$4 -22%
Rangers vs. Ducks Jan 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Heat vs. Warriors Jan 20 $10 +$1 +12%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 20 $200 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 20 $5 $0 -7%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $5 $0 +10%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jan 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Will "Jamie" be said 5+ times during the first episode of the Joe Roga Jan 14 $3 +$10 +317%
Will "Epstein" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper Jan 14 $3 +$17 +555%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jan 10 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 08 $40 −$29 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $20 16d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $31 16d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $5 16d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $34 41d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 97¢ $33 56d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 61d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY No 87¢ $20 66d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $20 66d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $80 66d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $30 66d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 88¢ $30 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.62 · official $269.38 (match) · 331 history records