Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea5…4677 crypto 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,532 (-8%) realized −$1,532 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%365W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$854
7 days−$883
14 days−$883
30 days−$898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,164
sports 0% −$11
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -74.2% -76.7% 19% 17% -70.0%
≤30d 76 -62.9% -66.4% 25% 24% -68.9%
≤90d 423 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 38% -23.1%
all 681 -15.0% -23.1% 54% 36% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 36% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 22% -26.5%
15% -37.1% 14% -33.6%
20% -43.3% 10% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses365 / 316
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)681 / 639
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 681 Trades
no open positions (191 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9AM ET Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $98 −$98 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $38 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Andrey Rublev 62¢ $43 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 46¢ $9 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 56¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $22 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $38 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records