Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CE 0xcea4…5a66 other 4 markets active 18h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$448 (+16%) realized +$442 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$708per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$250
crypto 4% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.5% -3.7% 100% 50% -0.4%
≤30d 2 +6.5% -3.7% 100% 50% -0.4%
≤90d 2 +6.5% -3.7% 100% 50% -0.4%
all 2 +6.5% -3.7% 100% 50% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 50% -0.4%
10% -12.9% 0% -9.9%
15% -21.3% 0% -18.6%
20% -29.0% 0% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$128 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$442
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage13d
Avg bet$708
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $69 $64 −$5 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $160 +$4 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2,373 +$251 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $164 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $665 19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $160 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $619 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $736 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $107 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $619 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1,223 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $516 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $619 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.65 · official $174.65 (match) · 29 history records