Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea4…efaf other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-36%) realized −$162 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$74
sports 24% −$69
crypto 8% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.9% -25.7% 30% 30% -48.8%
≤30d 10 -17.9% -25.7% 30% 30% -48.8%
≤90d 10 -17.9% -25.7% 30% 30% -48.8%
all 10 -17.9% -25.7% 30% 30% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 30% -48.8%
10% -32.8% 30% -53.7%
15% -39.3% 30% -58.2%
20% -45.3% 30% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+75%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$19 -61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$28 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$17 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 31m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $111 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.49 · official $77.44 (match) · 25 history records