Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea4…e910 politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$1
world 31% +$2
politics 25% −$1
culture 6% +$1
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 11% -8.7%
all 36 -2.6% -11.8% 33% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 3% -25.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage324d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $54 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $2 $0 -23%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 06 $51 +$1 +2%
Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $13 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $12 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $26 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $26 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $27 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $30 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $30 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $27 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $27 14d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.30 · official $29.30 (match) · 120 history records