Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea2…d80c sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$3
politics 23% −$2
other 18% −$3
crypto 11% −$8
economics 8% $0
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 148 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage164d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 26 $48 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $48 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 6h
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $43 13d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 13d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 13d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 26d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $47 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $41 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 41d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 92¢ $5 129d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 92¢ $42 129d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 92¢ $47 129d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 129d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 129d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $48 129d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 90¢ $48 129d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $51 129d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $51 129d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $46 129d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $46 129d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $47 129d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $47 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 129d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $5 129d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $47 129d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $47 129d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $29 129d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $16 129d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 647 history records