Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce9e…f6b4 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$24
politics 29% −$17
sports 10% +$52
crypto 4% −$2
tech 4% −$2
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 146 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×11.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage126d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $273 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $290 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $262 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $291 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $302 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $231 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 09 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $220 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $241 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $304 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 24 $255 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 6h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 34h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 22d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 22d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $210 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $210 24d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 24d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $255 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $255 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $290 26d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $290 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $210 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $210 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $290 28d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $290 28d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $262 28d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $262 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $298 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $298 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 440 history records