Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xce9e…1847 weather 58 markets active 9h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% +$32
tech 34% −$12
other 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 57 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,108) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage111d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $512 $511 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $1,743 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $628 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 27? Apr 27 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 21 $301 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20? Apr 21 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16? Apr 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11? Apr 12 $211 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 7? Apr 08 $318 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5? Apr 08 $352 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 6? Apr 08 $385 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 3 Apr 03 $238 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 29? Mar 30 $387 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on March 28? Mar 29 $178 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 27 $123 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 25 $862 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 23 Mar 24 $642 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on March 22? Mar 23 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on March 17? Mar 19 $710 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 19? Mar 19 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Mar 17 $489 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $588 +$2 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 13 Mar 14 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $328 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 11? Mar 12 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10? Mar 10 $1,118 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $1,117 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? Mar 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March Mar 07 $1,112 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 6? Mar 07 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 06 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 06 $2,210 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 4? Mar 05 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $2,220 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 04 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 8h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 33h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $512 5d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $789 5d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $790 8d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $790 9d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $791 10d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $800 11d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $801 12d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $706 13d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $706 14d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $720 17d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $721 19d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $621 20d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $621 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $333 23d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $333 24d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $920 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $921 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $423 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $424 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $213 31d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $214 32d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 46d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 48d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $628 50d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $320 52d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $401 53d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $401 54d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $354 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.02 · official $511.02 (match) · 134 history records