Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce9d…e467 weather 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-3%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%151W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$148
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 12% -7.5%
≤30d 57 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 12% -7.5%
≤90d 162 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 11% -12.6%
all 162 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 11% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 11% -12.6%
10% -19.1% 4% -20.9%
15% -26.9% 2% -28.6%
20% -34.1% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses151 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage74d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 15? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 15? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 15? Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or higher on April 22? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C on April 14? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on April 15? Jun 12 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 14? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 14? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on April 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on Apri Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on April 1 Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 15? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 15? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 15? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on Apri Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or higher on April 14? Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on April 14? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 15? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on Apri Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 15? Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 15? Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 15 Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 15? Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 15? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 15 Jun 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on April 15? Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 15? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C or higher on April 1 Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on April 1 Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 15? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 15? Jun 12 $21 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or higher on April 22? BUY No 98¢ $10 55d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 62d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 62d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? SELL No 99¢ $30 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? BUY No 99¢ $41 62d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 15? BUY No 98¢ $64 62d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 15? BUY No 98¢ $64 62d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 15? BUY No 99¢ $21 62d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 15? SELL No 99¢ $15 62d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 15? SELL No 99¢ $4 62d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15? BUY No 98¢ $14 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 14? SELL No 99¢ $14 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 14? BUY No 98¢ $14 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 545 history records