Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce9b…8e1c crypto 375 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$391 (+2%) realized +$390 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%177W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$369
14 days+$369
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$742
other 2% +$236
sports 1% +$133
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +33.1% +20.4% 70% 70% +50.7%
≤30d 10 +33.1% +20.4% 70% 70% +50.7%
≤90d 332 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 42% -11.2%
all 374 -20.4% -28.0% 47% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 40% -11.1%
10% -34.9% 30% -19.6%
15% -41.2% 23% -27.3%
20% -46.9% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses177 / 197
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)374 / 375
History coverage161d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $102 +$102 +101%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $113 +$80 +70%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$16 +81%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $71 +$99 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $61 +$97 +158%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 18 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 18 $62 −$28 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 18 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 18 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 18 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 18 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 17 $88 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 17 $18 −$12 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 17 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 14 $80 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 14 $70 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $94 −$21 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 12 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 12 $115 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 12 $106 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 12 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 12 $100 −$48 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 12 $30 −$19 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $100 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $201 11h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 19h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $113 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 47h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 5d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 5d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $54 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $27 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $53 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.17 · official $100.17 (match) · 1096 history records