Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce9a…aa37 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$14
politics 16% −$13
other 6% +$27
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$21
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 45 +5.6% -4.5% 31% 20% -9.2%
all 56 +4.3% -5.6% 30% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 16% -9.6%
10% -14.6% 16% -18.3%
15% -22.9% 14% -26.2%
20% -30.4% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage575d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$4 +50%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $86 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $93 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $7 +$4 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 +$10 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $8 +$7 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $13 +$7 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $18 +$2 +10%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blues Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $22 +$14 +61%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 25 $17 +$7 +41%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $95 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,547 −$14 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Jan 17 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 21d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 25d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $5 27d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.74 · official $62.74 (match) · 238 history records